04 May 2018

Local & California Market Update

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I could jump in to how the SF market is on fire, but I seem to lead with that every month.  If you need any evidence of how crazy the market is this year, just take a look at these sales (157 College, 181 Majestic, 1209 Sanchez, 631 Folsom #4E). I thought it might be good to take a quick look at what is happening around the state.

Southern California housing ranked with ‘minimal’ risk of a bubble

Housing bubble coming? According to one mortgage insurance company’s latest reports, there’s only a slim chance Southern California home prices will fall in the next two years.

Arch MI gauged the economic foundations of home values in 100 major metropolitan areas to determine local housing markets with “minimal” risk. Locally, Arch MI found solid performance among regional businesses and limited development of new homes as factors that should keep home prices firm.

Orange County was the riskiest market in the region — if having a 4 percent risk of a price decline in the coming two years is what you consider dicey. That compares with the county’s 28-year historical average of 25 percent chance of falling home values.

Los Angeles County had 2 percent risk of decline as 2018 started vs. a 1980-2018 average of 27 percent, according to Arch MI. That score came as L.A. home prices surged 15.9 percent in two years — No. 32 biggest gain; per-capita homebuilding of 6 houses per 10,000 population was fourth slowest nationally; and business output rose 4.9 percent last year, No. 51 fastest

Source: The Orange County Register

Sacramento is on the Grow

Sacramento is the fastest-growing big city in California. Sacramento’s population has topped 500,000 for the first time, and the city grew at the fastest rate among the 10 largest cities in California, according to new data from the state Department of Finance.

Making sense of the story:

• The department on Tuesday released a report containing preliminary January 2018 and revised January 2017 population data for California cities, counties and the state. Sacramento is the sixth-largest city in the state, growing to 501,344 residents, according to the report. At 1.43 percent, or 7,000 residents, Sacramento had the largest population gain, edging San Diego (1.42 percent, or 20,000 residents) among the state’s biggest cities.

• California added 309,000 residents, growing its population to 39,810,000 residents as of Jan. 1, 2018. Growth was strongest in the more densely populated counties in the Bay Area, Central Valley and Southern California.

• Los Angeles, the state’s largest city, grew by almost 33,000 people, putting its population at 4,054,400. San Diego remains California’s second-largest city with a population of 1,419,845. San Jose is the third city in the state to have more than a million people, at 1,052,316. Rounding out the top six are San Francisco (883,963), Fresno (538,330) and Sacramento.

• Santa Rosa lost 3,081 housing units as a result of the 2017 wildfires. The city’s population did grow 0.2 percent to 178,488 because of an annexation of 2,000 housing units.

• Placer County was among the three fastest-growing counties on a percentage basis, increasing 1.7 percent to 389,532 residents. Merced County was first at 1.8 percent, or 4,900, followed by Placer and San Joaquin counties.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

San Francisco Home Values & Trends

On a 3-month-rolling basis, median home sales prices in San Francisco yet again hit new highs in April 2018: The median house sales price jumped $55,000 over the March price to hit $1,665,000, and the median condo sales price jumped $50,000 in April to $1,225,000 (3-month rolling sales through 4/30/18, reported by May 2). Those reflect year-over-year increases of 23% and 8% respectively. Average dollar per square foot values also reached new peak values.

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