I, as well as other agents, have seen fewer offers coming in on our listings. Instead of 40% over list price, it has become much closer to 15 – 20%. There are many reasons why this might be the case but overall the market is flattening just a tiny bit. Median sales prices typically fall in Q3 from Q2 due to seasonal inventory and demand issues, and that occurred in 2016 as well. Year over year, the Q3 2016 house price is running somewhat above that of Q3 2015, while the condo median price has stayed essentially flat.
2012 – 2016
San Francisco Median Home Prices by Year
1993 – 2016
Biggest Surge in New Luxury Home Listings Ever
Even more so than the general market, the luxury home market is fiercely seasonal, with spring and autumn being much more active than summer and, especially, the mid-winter holiday doldrums. September is typically the single month with the highest number of new listings, which fuels the relatively short autumn selling season before the luxury market starts to go into hibernation in mid-late November. This year saw a particularly large jump in the number of new listings of homes of $2.5 million and above to by far the highest level ever.
Because the time between listings coming on market, offers being negotiated and accepted, and then the transactions actually closing sale is 4 to 6 weeks or more, it will be a little while before we have hard data on how the market responded to this feast of expensive homes hitting the market.